Seminar: Economics of Conflict and Conflict Resolution

Seminar time/rooms: Mon & Wed 1-4pm (Mahit 601); Fri 1-4pm (TBA)

Seminar size: The class size is limited to 25 students, to be split into two sections: 1-2:15pm and 2:30-3:45pm.

Office room/hours: Mahit 208/1.1 (Mon & Wed 4-5pm) | Email: ajarn [dot] jurgen [at] gmail [dot] com.

Academic honesty, class attendance, and expected classroom behavior: Please refer to the relevant university policies. Academic dishonesty is not tolerated and results in expulsion from class, a failing grade, and reporting to the university authorities. This includes cheating, ghostwriting, plagiarism, or other forms of dishonesty on any other assigned work. Classroom behavior that permits unimpeded exchange of academically relevant ideas and views is expected. Turn off cell phones or other electronic devices and put them out of sight. I have only one rule: You cannot come late, you cannot leave early, and for the duration of class you must be 100% alert. I expect students' personal conduct to be courteous, professional, and business-like at all times.

Assignments and grading:

Research paper (50%): Scroll down to the bottom of this page to see the details. An outline & initial draft is due at the beginning of the midterm period. The finished paper is due at the beginning of the final exam period. You must email me PDF files of well-prepared copies of your draft and finished papers, with your name, nickname, and Chula student ID clearly stated on the front page.

Participation (50%) : One half of your course grade comes from class attendance, presentations, and critical thinking-oriented participation, 30 percentage points of which are based on two peer evaluations (15% each) of your contributions to the seminar (one at midterm, one at the final exam time period). The other 20 percentage points come from my evaluation of your contributions. "Class attendance and participation" means never to be late to class, never to leave early, never to play with your cell phone or other electronic devices, never to let your class mates down; it means to volunteer with eagerness to make class presentations, to share findings and information, to summarize the readings, and to think and rethink how the readings "hang together" so that you can build a mental map of the field of conflict and peace economics. [Copy of the Peer Evaluation Form here].

Grading scale: 90% = A; 85%+ = B+; 80% = B; 75%+ = C+; 70% = C; 65%+ = D+; 60% = D; <60% = F.

Textbook: Anderton and Carter. Principles of Conflict Economics. 2nd edition. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2019.

Readings: A username and password for the readings listed below will be provided in class. All materials are copyright protected. As a courtesy to you, you may use them for study in this class but you may not distribute any of the files to anyone else. Legally, you are expected to respect copyright law. Morally, you are expected to respect the authors' and publishers' work.

Tentative class schedule and syllabus: See details below. Always check to see if there are updated a/o new materials posted.

Course evaluation: At the conclusion of the course, use your Chula usn/pws to log in to https://www.cas.chula.ac.th/cas and complete the course evaluation for this seminar course (course code: 2952418).

Special note: No EBA student is excluded from the course. However, your English language skills (including and especially confidence regarding your spoken English) should be above the average for EBA students. The reason for this is that this course revolves around public speaking in class.

Mon 10 June (Mahit 601)

Readings, presentations, discussion: Economics of conflict

- Text: Ch. 1.1 - 1.3 (definitions, data, etc.) [15 min.]

- Text: Ch. 1.4 (interdependencies, method of study) [15 min.]

- Paper: Brauer (2017); Anderton and Brauer (2019) [30 min.]

- Ajarn Jurgen: Summing up and tasks for the next session

Wed 12 June (Mahit 601)

Readings, presentations, discussion: Macro- and microeconomics

- Text: Ch. 2 (Macroecon: PPF and econ growth) [20 min.]

- Text: Ch. 3 (Microecon: demand and supply; include section 3.4) [20 min.]

- Text: Chs. 2 & 3: Create your own applications [20 min.]

- Ajarn Jurgen: Summing up and tasks for the next session

Fri 14 June (Econ Bldg 410)

Readings, presentations, and discussion: Rational choice, constrained optimization model

- Text: Ch. 4.1 & 4.2 (background theory) [20 min.]

- Text: Ch. 4.3 (1+1 applications: 1 in the text plus one you invent) [20 min.]

- Text: Ch. 4.3 (1+1 applications; 1 in the text plus one you invent) [20 min.]

- Ajarn Jurgen: Summing up and tasks for the next session

Mon 24 June (Mahit 601) [midterm date]

Readings, presentation, discussion: Network economics

- Peer evaluation #1 due

- Draft of research paper due

- Text: Ch. 7.1 & 7.2, suggest application (key concepts & outcomes) [20 min.]

- Text: Ch. 7.3 & 7.4, with application [20 min.]

- Paper: Anderton and Brauer (2019; JGR paper under review) [20 min.]

- Ajarn Jurgen: Summing up and tasks for the next session

Wed 26 June (Mahit 601)

Readings, presentations, discussion: Conflict success functions and appropriation theory

- Text: Ch. 8.1 & 8.2 (key concepts and settlement opportunities) [30 min.]

- Text: Ch. 8.3 (appropriation and the Edgeworth box) [30 min.]

- Ajarn Jurgen: Summing up and tasks for the next session

Mon 8 July (Mahit 601)

Readings, presentations, discussion: Mass atrocities and genocides

- Text: Ch. 14.1, 14.2, & 14.3 (definition, patterns, actors) [15 min.]

- Text: Ch. 14.4 (RCM and behavioral econ applications) [15 min.]

- Text: Ch. 14.5 (CGT and EGT applications) [15 min.]

- Text: Ch. 14.6 (pp. 312-313; network models applications) [15 min.]

- Ajarn Jurgen: Summing up and tasks for the next session

Wed 10 July (Mahit 601)

Readings, presentations, discussion: Arms rivalry, proliferation, and arms control

- Text: Ch. 15.3 (Richardson model) [spreadsheet for ch. 15.3 [here]) [20 min.]

- Text: Ch. 15.4 (Intriligator-Brito model) [40 min.]

- Ajarn Jurgen: Summing up and tasks for the next session

Your research paper is an application of conflict and peace economics to a topic of your choice, but one that is not covered in the textbook or readings. In the past, students have examined topics as diverse as a comparison of differences in the northern and southern violent conflicts in Thailand, the connection between violent conflict in Israel/Palestine and the Israeli housing market, and the degree to which concepts of peace economics apply to the case of the United States between independence in 1776 and its civil war of 1861-65. So long as your paper in on conflict/peace and economics (not politics, for instance), it will be on target. The paper MUST be data-based.

Format: typed, double-spaced with 1 inch margins, 12-type font (Times New Roman), no extra spacing between paragraphs. Length: 4-6,000 words of text. You should have a list of references of between 5 to 10 items, following a proper citation format. (An example of a style sheet to follow is [here].) The paper length requirement is exclusive of title page, figure(s), tables (if any), and list of references. Order: title page, text, endnotes (if any), references, figure(s) and tables (if any), and appendices (if any). For background literature, the following web sites may be helpful: EPSJ, RePEc, NBER, SSRN, HiCN ( and EconLit if you have access). Quote (or paraphrase) and cite. DO NOT PLAGIARIZE (which, in scholarship, is a deadly sin and results in a course grade of "F").

Potential data sources: Apart from sources listed in the Anderton/Carter (2019) text, here are some dataset web sites: Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Political Instability Task Force (PITF), Center for Systemic Peace (CSP), Global Terrorism Database (GTD), Correlates of War (COW), Global Peace Index and Positive Peace Index (GPI). You are welcome to search for and make use of additional data sites (including, of course, the Penn World Table, World Bank, IMF, and UN for general economic data). Note how carefully charts and tables are constructed in the Anderton/Carter text and in the readings: There are headings and subheadings, units of measurement, and source identification for example as well as careful definitions in the text material. The charts and tables are well-formated and presented. Do not copy/paste other people's charts or tables. The point of the exercise is for you to construct charts and tables yourself and then proceed with your analysis.

Paper structure: Structure your paper approximately as follows:

• 10%: Introduction [overview, context, main thesis, main findings]

• 80%: Main text

• 10%: Conclusion [note that a conclusion is NOT a summary]

Paper assessment: Your paper will be graded on content (e.g., literature collection, sound analysis) and on how well it is written (e.g., concise statements, logical constructions, no misspellings, no grammatical errors, etc.).

When writing your paper you may find it useful to ask the following questions:

1. Do the opening paragraphs contain a clear description of what the paper is focusing on and do they contain a clearly stated research question?

2. Does each paragraph have a main point that justifies the paragraph’s presence in the paper?

3. Do the paragraphs follow in a logical order?

4. Does the conclusion follow from the material presented in the paper?

5. Are your arguments supported by examples, graphs, and/or data or are you offering weakly supported opinions?

6. Does your use of economic concepts and models strengthen the paper or is it used just for the sake of including a model?

7. Is the paper marred by misspellings, errors in syntax, poorly chosen words, or excessive quotations?

8. Are references presented in a proper and consistent format?

9. Does the paper show clear insight and careful thought?

10. Has the paper gone through multiple drafts and has the final draft been proofread?

Thank you to Prof. Charles H. Anderton for this set of questions.